From the Desk

From the Desk – October 2025 THE FUTURE IS FLAT, VOLATILE, AND REQUIRES A DIGITAL BACKBONE Nirmalya Mukherjee The latest World Steel Association (worldsteel) Short Range Outlook should serve as a cold-shower moment for the global steel industry. While the forecast projects global steel demand to be flat in 2025 at approximately 1.75 billion tonnes, with only a modest 1.3% rebound to 1.77 billion tonnes anticipated for 2026, the real story lies in the profound regional divergence and escalating market volatility. China’s steel demand is expected to continue its decline, falling by 2% in 2025 and a further 1% in 2026, yet India is charging ahead with projected 9% growth in both years. This split-screen reality—sluggishness in developed markets contrasting with infrastructure-driven booms in developing ones—is further complicated by escalating trade wars and rising tariffs. The imposition of new restrictions, like the tariff concerns that led worldsteel to postpone its April outlook, are not mere footnotes; they are existential pressures on export-reliant mills. The only viable response to this geopolitical and economic complexity is wholesale AI automation and digitalization. We cannot rely on analog, rigid systems to navigate a world where a supply chain decision made this quarter might be rendered obsolete by a new trade barrier next quarter. Digitalization is the sharpest tool we have to manage volatile raw material and energy costs, which continue to squeeze the manufacturing sector. AI-driven production scheduling and predictive maintenance offer the margin of efficiency that will separate the thriving from the merely surviving. This is especially true for MSMEs; for them, digitalization is not a luxury, but the primary mechanism for achieving the lean, agile operation necessary to compete against giant producers buoyed by strong domestic demand, as we see in the Indian market. Furthermore, the industry’s twin imperatives—safety and decarbonization—are impossible to achieve at scale without a digital core. Automation immediately removes human personnel from the most hazardous areas of the mill, driving down our sector’s historically challenging Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (LTIFR). Simultaneously, the pivot to green alternatives, such as hydrogen-based Direct Reduced Iron (H2-DRI), introduces immense complexity in energy and process management. Only AI can effectively balance the intermittent nature of renewable energy, the variable quality of alternative feedstocks, and the necessary process controls to ensure a high-quality product while minimizing the CO2 emissions intensity. Decarbonization isn’t just a corporate mandate; it is becoming a market access requirement. Digitalization is the control panel for the low-carbon future.The path forward is clear: a digital transformation is the strategic investment that transforms volatility into opportunity. To every decision-maker in the global steel sector, from the executive office to the furnace floor, the message must be the same: Embrace the data revolution, or be consumed by the next cycle of global flux. Our industry’s resilience is legendary, but in this era, resilience requires intelligence. The time for pilot projects is over. It’s time for full-scale digital deployment. Leave a Reply Cancel Reply Logged in as Amitech India. Edit your profile. Log out? Required fields are marked * Message* From the Desk – Previous Issues 10 October 2025 11-11-2025 09 September 2025 18-09-2025 05 May 2025 16-06-2025 04 April 2025 04-06-2025 03 March 2025 04-06-2025 02 February 2025 13-04-2025 Edit Template

From the Desk – Sep 2025 INDIA’S IRON ORE GAMBIT IS A NECESSARY, ALBEIT RISKY, STEP TOWARDS TRUE SELF-RELIANCE Nirmalya Mukherjee The corridors of power in New Delhi are once again buzzing with a policy proposal that holds the potential to fundamentally reshape India’s steel landscape: a formidable 30% export duty on low-grade iron ore. This is not merely a fiscal adjustment; it is a strategic declaration of intent. At a time when the global steel market is in flux, with giants like China and Japan reporting diminished production, India finds itself at a pivotal crossroads. The government’s move, aimed at bolstering domestic supply and championing value addition, is a high-stakes play that presents both immense opportunity and significant challenges for the nation’s steel fraternity. The calculus behind this proposal is rooted in a straightforward, yet compelling, logic. In FY24, India produced 289 million tonnes (MT) of iron ore against a consumption of 256 MT, exporting the surplus of 48 MT. Critically, 30 MT of these exports were low-grade fines. The government’s argument is clear: why export a primary raw material at a lower value when it can be processed domestically into higher-value products like pellets and, eventually, steel? This directly aligns with the Atmanirbhar Bharat Vision 2047, which envisions an India that is not just a producer of raw materials but a global manufacturing powerhouse. By disincentivizing exports, the policy aims to ensure that domestic steel mills have access to a steady, price-competitive supply of iron ore, thereby insulating them from global volatility and strengthening the foundation for national infrastructure projects. This domestic policy shift is occurring against a fascinating global backdrop. In July, China’s crude steel production hit a seven-month low, and Japan’s output has been on a three-month decline. Juxtapose this with the latest figures from JSW Steel, which reported a stunning 17% year-on-year increase in crude steel output for August 2025, operating at an impressive 95% capacity utilization. This is a powerful signal. While the established leaders are contracting, India’s steel engine is firing on all cylinders. JSW’s performance is not just a corporate success; it is a testament to India’s growing capability to fill the void and assert itself as a reliable, large-scale steel producer. The proposed duty can be seen as a strategic tool to further fuel this domestic engine, ensuring our champions have the resources they need to compete on the world stage. However, no major policy shift comes without its perils. The immediate challenge will be faced by the domestic mining sector, particularly in states like Odisha and Goa, which rely heavily on exporting low-grade fines that many domestic steelmakers are not equipped to process efficiently. An abrupt halt to these exports without a corresponding ramp-up in domestic pelletization capacity could create a supply glut, depressing ore prices and hurting miners’ bottom line. This is the delicate balancing act: supporting steel producers without crippling the miners who supply them. In an era of escalating tariff wars and protectionist sentiments globally, such a move could also face international scrutiny. The path forward demands a nuanced and collaborative approach. A blunt, one-size-fits-all duty may be less effective than a rules-based, trigger-linked mechanism that adapts to market conditions. The government’s true test will be in fostering an ecosystem where this captured low-grade ore can be swiftly and economically upgraded. This means incentivizing investment in pellet plants and beneficiation technology. This is a moment for the entire steel fraternity—miners, primary and secondary producers, and policymakers—to engage in a constructive dialogue. The objective should not be to block or bulldoze this policy, but to refine it. We must devise a phased implementation plan that allows the mining sector to adapt while providing the steel industry with the raw material security it needs to power India’s economic ascent. The data is clear: India has the production capacity and the burgeoning demand. Let us not falter in its execution. The goal is not just to build steel mills, but to build a resilient, self-reliant, and globally competitive steel ecosystem for generations to come.

From the Desk – May 2025 SAFEGUARD DUTY TO PROVIDE SUPPORT TO DOMESTIC STEEL PRODUCERS IN THEIR FIGHT AGAINST LOWER PRICED IMPORTS Nirmalya Mukherjee The recent imposition of a 12% safeguard tariff by India on specific imported steel products, such as hot-rolled coils, sheets, and plates, marks a significant strategic shift intended to bolster the domestic steel industry. This protective measure, effective for an initial period of 200 days, was introduced following recommendations by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) after their detailed investigation into the surge of inexpensive imports, predominantly from China and Vietnam. This move, though protective in intent, carries both potential benefits and challenges. On the positive side, the safeguard duty seeks to provide a necessary buffer for domestic steel manufacturers, enabling them to compete effectively against lower-priced imports. It is anticipated that this measure will enhance local steel production and employment opportunities within India, aligning with the objectives of the government’s National Steel Policy, which targets a production capacity of 300 million tonnes (MT) by 2030. Conversely, critics point to the downside of increased costs for industries reliant on steel imports, which could lead to inflationary pressures as businesses pass these additional costs onto consumers. Organizations such as J.P. Morgan Research have indicated that such tariffs may contribute to broader inflationary trends, affecting consumer prices and overall economic stability. Additionally, India’s tariff could trigger retaliatory trade actions from affected countries, potentially disrupting export markets for Indian manufacturers. This aspect is especially pertinent as imports from countries with Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) represented 51% of India’s steel imports in 2024, highlighting how broadly this duty will be felt internationally. The backdrop to these tariff measures is the robust performance of India’s steel industry in the fiscal year 2024-2025, where crude steel production capacity expanded by 10% year-on-year to 205 MT. Production itself grew by approximately 6%, reaching 152 MT, with domestic steel consumption rising by 11.3%, reflecting healthy industrial demand across sectors such as infrastructure, automotive, and general engineering. Despite the industry’s resilience, Indian steel producers have faced substantial pressure due to the continuous inflow of cheaper steel imports, particularly from China, which accounted for around 30% of total imports. The imposition of the safeguard duty, therefore, becomes critical in balancing the competitive landscape. On the global stage, the steel market dynamics have presented a mixed scenario. Declining demand and production levels in China have affected global trade flows, creating an environment where protectionist measures become appealing to safeguard local interests. Looking forward, the safeguard duty combined with other nontariff barriers, such as mandatory BIS certification and the Steel Import Monitoring Scheme (SIMS), is likely to fortify the position of domestic steel producers. However, careful monitoring will be necessary to mitigate potential adverse economic impacts and international trade repercussions. Ultimately, these regulatory interventions are anticipated to positively influence domestic steel utilization rates, projected to hit a decadal high of 88% capacity utilization in FY25. As India moves towards achieving higher self-sufficiency and sustained industry growth, strategic management of these tariffs and proactive engagement with international trade partners will remain essential. 1 Comment Amit16-06-2025 at 05:07 AM | Edit Insightful and timely overview of May 2025 steel market trends—thanks for keeping us informed with such a clear, data-driven snapshot! Reply Leave a Reply Cancel Reply Logged in as Amitech India. Edit your profile. Log out? Required fields are marked * Message*

From the Desk – April 2025 FORGING AHEAD: INDIA’S STEEL SECTOR DEFIES GLOBAL HEADWINDS Nirmalya Mukherjee As we close the books on FY 2024–25, India’s steel industry has once again demonstrated its strength—not just in numbers, but in narrative. At a time when traditional steel strongholds like the European Union are grappling with idle capacities, high production costs, and uncertain demand, India has carved out a compelling story of resilience and upward momentum. Provisional figures released for the April–March 2024–25 period paint an optimistic picture: Crude steel production surged to 151.14 million tonnes (MnT), reflecting a 4.7% increase year-on-year. Finished steel consumption hit 150.23 MnT, a robust 10.2% rise, driven by infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing activities. Pig iron and hot metal production registered growth of 12.7% and 4.6% respectively—testament to the upstream strength supporting steelmaking. Imports rose to 9.53 MnT (↑14.6%), while exports fell sharply to 4.86 MnT, a 35.1% drop—a clear indication of India’s internal demand absorbing much of its output. This surge is more than statistical—it reflects India’s maturing industrial base, its government’s focused push on self-reliance through initiatives like Make in India, and the appetite for high-grade infrastructure development that fuels sustained steel consumption. In sharp contrast, the European Union finds itself in a bind. According to data from GMK Center, more than 9 million tonnes of steel capacity remains idle across the EU. Energy costs, emissions regulations, and shrinking demand have disrupted production cycles, leaving mills underutilized and margins under pressure. While Indian steelmakers ramp up capacity and build towards net-zero goals with technology-backed transitions, Europe appears caught in the turbulence of a shifting policy and market environment. The juxtaposition couldn’t be starker—where India sees opportunity, Europe sees overcapacity. The global steel map is undergoing a quiet but significant realignment. India is no longer just a fast-growing market—it is fast becoming a central pillar of the future global steel economy. With rising consumption, planned capacity expansions, and a push towards sustainable technologies, India is charting a path that balances growth with responsibility. However, this path is not without challenges. The decline in exports must be addressed through enhanced competitiveness, higher-value products, and strategic trade alliances. Additionally, navigating raw material security and environmental compliance will be crucial as India aims for long-term leadership. India’s performance in FY 2024–25 is more than a positive yearend report—it is a signal of steel’s centrality in India’s economic growth. While the global steel landscape remains volatile, India’s measured, domestic-demand-driven growth offers a blueprint for resilience. As stakeholders across the value chain—from miners to mills— align towards common goals of sustainability, self-reliance, and global relevance, India is poised not just to participate in the global steel narrative, but to shape it. Steel & Metallurgy is proud to be a Media Partner at the upcoming India Steel Exhibition 2025, taking place on April 24th- 26th at the Bombay Exhibition Centre (NESCO), Mumbai. We warmly welcome all delegates, exhibitors, and visitors to visit us at the event. Join us as we celebrate innovation, collaboration, and the future of steel in India! Let’s connect, converse, and contribute to the growth of the industry—see you at India Steel 2025! Leave a Reply Cancel Reply Logged in as Amitech India. Edit your profile. Log out? Required fields are marked * Message* From the Desk – From Previous Issues May 2025 16-06-2025 April 2025 04-06-2025 March 2025 04-06-2025 February 2025 13-04-2025 Edit Template

From the Desk – March 2025 NAVIGATING THE CROSSROADS: INDIA’S IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY IN FY’25 Nirmalya Mukherjee The fiscal year 2024-2025 (FY’25) presented a complex landscape for India’s iron and steel sector. While the industry sustained its growth trajectory, the pace moderated due to global demand fluctuations, a downturn in Chinese steel production, and a surge in imports into the domestic market. Production DynamicsIndia’s crude steel output is projected to have risen by 6% year-on-year, reaching 152 million tonnes (mnt) in FY’25, a deceleration compared to the over 14% growth observed in the previous fiscal year. Notably, the Basic Oxygen Furnace (BFBOF) route’s contribution declined, with its share dropping from 43% in FY’24 to 41% in FY’25. Conversely, the induction furnace segment experienced growth, increasing its share from 32% to 38% over the same period. Consumption PatternsDomestic steel demand is estimated to have reached 149 mnt, marking a 9% increase from 136 mnt in FY’24. This growth, though positive, reflects a slowdown from the 13% surge seen in the prior year, largely attributed to pre-election infrastructure spending. The infrastructure and construction sectors continuedto dominate consumption, accounting for approximately 63- 65% of total demand. Market Pressures and PricingThe influx of imports exerted downward pressure on domestic prices, leading to a 7% year-on-year decline in BigMint’s India Steel Composite Index. The flat steel segment bore the brunt, with imports capturing over 90% of this market. In response, the government proposed a 12% provisional safeguard duty on flat steel imports, aiming to stabilize prices and support local producers. Trade DynamicsSteel imports increased by 8% to 9.8 mnt, representing about 6.5% of domestic consumption. This uptick, particularly in specific flat steel products, posed challenges for primary producers. On the export front, volumes declined by nearly 30% to 6.7 mnt, influenced by heightened competition from Chinese suppliers in key markets and subdued global demand. Raw Material InsightsIron ore production grew by 6% to 295 mnt, aligning with increased demand from the steel sector. However, exports of iron ore fines and pellets experienced a significant drop of 36%, primarily due to reduced demand from China and lower global prices. Coal production surpassed the 1 billion tonne mark, leading to a 9% decrease in non-coking coal imports. In contrast, metallurgical coal imports saw a modest rise of 4%, reflecting the production trends in the BF-BOF segment. Looking AheadThe late introduction of safeguard duties provided some relief to domestic prices, with expectations of continued price adjustments in the early quarters of FY’26. Additionally, exemptions from the European Union’s anti-dumping measures and potential production cuts in China may enhance India’s export prospects, though a swift recovery remains uncertain. In summary, FY’25 was a year of measured growth and strategic recalibrations for India’s iron and steel industry. Balancing domestic production with external market forces and policy interventions will be crucial as the sector navigates the evolving global landscape. Leave a Reply Cancel Reply Logged in as Amitech India. Edit your profile. Log out? Required fields are marked * Message* From the Desk – From Previous Issues May 2025 16-06-2025 April 2025 04-06-2025 March 2025 04-06-2025 February 2025 13-04-2025 Edit Template

From the Desk – February 2025 NAVIGATING STEEL TRADE DISRUPTIONS – INDIA’S RESPONSE TO GLOBAL TRADE SHIFTS Nirmalya Mukherjee The global steel trade is once again facing turbulence, this time due to fresh tariffs imposed by the United States under the administration of Donald Trump. However, while these duties are expected to shake up global steel flows, their direct impact on India may remain limited. Meanwhile, the real challenge for Indian steel producers comes from a surge in imports from China, Korea, and Vietnam, which could soon prompt India to impose safeguard duties to protect its domestic industry. Trump’s Tariffs: Limited Impact on IndiaThe U.S. has long been a challenging export market for Indian steel due to extensive anti-dumping (ADD) and countervailing duties (CVD) imposed over the years. With more than 30 trade remedial measures already in place—some lasting over three decades—Indian carbon steel exports to the U.S. have been minuscule. In light of this, the latest round of tariffs is unlikely to cause significant additional harm to Indian steelmakers. Instead, the biggest impact of the U.S. duties will likely be felt by its top three suppliers—Canada, Mexico, and China—who together account for the bulk of American steel imports. The resulting trade diversion from these countries will likely push surplus steel into alternative markets, including India, exacerbating existing concerns of oversupply and price suppression. India’s Looming Safeguard DutiesWhile U.S. tariffs may not directly disrupt Indian exports, the secondary effects could be severe. A glut of global steel, displaced by trade restrictions, is already intensifying competition in India’s domestic market. Imports from China, Korea, and Vietnam have surged in recent months, leading to growing concerns about market distortions caused by unfair pricing and subsidized exports. Recognizing this threat, India’s steel minister H.D. Kumaraswamy has hinted at imminent safeguard measures to curb excessive imports. Reports suggest that the government is considering imposing safeguard duties in the range of 15-25% within the next six months. The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has already launched an investigation into flat steel imports, extending deadlines for industry responses and data submissions. If the duties are implemented, they could remain in effect for up to two years, providing temporary relief to Indian producers. Industry’s Call for ActionThe Indian Steel Association (ISA) has expressed strong concerns over the U.S. tariffs, arguing that they will indirectly hurt India by flooding its market with surplus steel from displaced exporters. ISA President Naveen Jindal has called for urgent diplomatic intervention to address longstanding trade barriers and secure exemptions from restrictive measures. While industry leaders welcome the prospect of safeguard duties, they also stress that short-term protection must be complemented by long-term policy measures, including infrastructure investments, incentives for domestic manufacturing, and stronger enforcement of anti-dumping regulations. Looking Ahead: Balancing Protection with GrowthIndia’s steel sector stands at a crossroads. While protectionist measures like safeguard duties can offer temporary relief, they are not a long-term solution. The government must strike a delicate balance—shielding domestic producers from unfair competition while ensuring that steel-consuming industries, such as construction and automotive, do not suffer from inflated input costs. As global trade dynamics shift, India’s steel industry must remain agile, focusing on innovation, efficiency, and new export markets. With strategic planning, robust policy measures, and diplomatic engagement, India can navigate this challenging period and reinforce its position as a leading global steel producer. Leave a Reply Cancel Reply Logged in as Amitech India. Edit your profile. Log out? Required fields are marked * Message* From the Desk – From Previous Issues May 2025 16-06-2025 April 2025 04-06-2025 March 2025 04-06-2025 February 2025 13-04-2025 Edit Template