Page 38 - Steel Metallurgy eMagazine Volume September 2026

DEMAND FORECASTING

growth will require a greater focus The real test will therefore be whether decade. Achieving this objective will
on productivity, raw material quality, Indian producers can maintain their require sustained investments across the
sustainability and timely execution. As competitiveness through improvements entire value chain—from mining and
India's steel sector continues to expand, in productivity, technology, cost beneficiation to steelmaking, logistics
success will increasingly depend on how efficiency and product quality. If global and supporting infrastructure.
effectively policy, mining, infrastructure, overcapacity—particularly from China—
technology and environmental continues to influence international Current market conditions are
stewardship evolve together. markets, future policy responses may encouraging and have improved investor
again become necessary. Nevertheless, confidence. However, maintaining this
These are the areas that, in my assessment, long-term resilience must ultimately momentum will require consistency in
deserve greater attention as India works come from strengthening the industry's policy, timely project approvals, reliable
towards becoming a globally competitive fundamentals rather than relying on infrastructure and continued growth in
steel-producing nation. temporary trade measures. domestic demand.

LOOKING 2. Decarbonisation Will Become a From my experience of monitoring large
AHEAD: FOUR Business Imperative industrial projects, investment decisions
are influenced not only by market
DEVELOPMENTS The global steel industry is entering opportunities but also by confidence
in the overall project ecosystem.
period
environmental
where
THAT WILL SHAPE a performance will increasingly influence Predictable regulatory processes, efficient
INDIA'S STEEL market access. coordination among stakeholders and
timely implementation often determine
SECTOR BY 2030 The implementation of the European whether announced projects progress
Union's Carbon Border Adjustment into commissioned assets.
The progress achieved over the past Mechanism (CBAM) marks an important
decade provides confidence that India is shift in international trade. Although its The next few years will therefore be
moving in the right direction. However, immediate impact on Indian exports critical in translating investment
the period leading up to 2030 will be may be limited, it signals a broader global intentions into operational capacity.
particularly significant. The National movement towards carbon-conscious
Steel Policy has already established a clear manufacturing. 4. Strengthening the Raw Material
vision; the next few years will determine Ecosystem
how effectively that vision is translated For Indian steel producers, reducing
into sustained industrial growth. carbon intensity is no longer only While steelmaking capacity often
an environmental objective—it is receives the greatest attention, I believe
In my assessment, the following becoming an important aspect of long- equal importance should be given
developments merit close attention. term business strategy. Investments to strengthening the raw material
in energy efficiency, renewable power, ecosystem that supports future growth.
1. The Future of Trade Protection and hydrogen-based technologies, carbon The declining share of high-grade iron
Domestic Competitiveness capture, circular economy practices and ore, continued dependence on imported
resource efficiency are likely to play a coking coal and the growing need for
The safeguard duty introduced on steel progressively larger role in maintaining beneficiation and pelletisation facilities
imports has provided timely support global competitiveness. highlight the importance of developing
to domestic producers by improving an integrated approach towards resource
market sentiment and reducing import In my view, India's transition towards management.
pressure. It has also helped restore a green steel should not be seen merely
degree of stability during a period of as a compliance requirement but as an India possesses significant mineral
heightened global competition. opportunity to strengthen the industry's resources and a strong mining industry.
position in emerging international The challenge going forward is to
However, this measure is scheduled to markets. maximise the value derived from these
be reduced in phases over the coming resources through improved processing
years. As these protections gradually 3. Sustaining Investment Momentum technologies, efficient logistics and
taper, the industry's ability to compete sustainable mining practices.
will increasingly depend on its own The National Steel Policy envisages a
operational strengths rather than policy substantial expansion in steelmaking In my assessment, strengthening the raw
support. capacity over the remainder of this material base will remain one of the most

36 STEEL & METALLURGY SEPTEMBER 2026