Page 28 - Steel Metallurgy eMagazine Volume September 2026

DEMAND FORECASTING

its long-term objectives. The assessment THE PROGRESS SO steel sector in recent times. Several
is based on publicly available information indicators improved simultaneously—
from the Ministry of Steel, World Steel FAR: ENCOURAGING capacity utilisation remained healthy,
Association and other industry sources, TRENDS, BUT THE domestic demand continued to
together with observations drawn from JOURNEY IS FAR expand, exports recovered and market
my professional experience. sentiment strengthened. Such broad-
FROM COMPLETE based improvement is generally a better
One aspect has become increasingly indicator of sectoral health than growth
evident over the years. Formulating a in any single parameter.
national policy is only the beginning of Nearly a decade after the National Steel
the journey. Translating policy targets Policy was introduced, it is evident that TWO DEVELOPMENTS DURING
into operating capacity requires sustained India has made substantial progress THE PAST YEAR DESERVE
investment, timely statutory clearances, towards its long-term objectives. The PARTICULAR ATTENTION.
efficient logistics, reliable raw material expansion of steelmaking capacity,
supply and favourable market conditions sustained growth in domestic The first relates to trade policy. The
over an extended period. Delays in any consumption and record levels of introduction of the 12% provisional
one of these areas can influence the pace production demonstrate that the policy safeguard duty on flat steel imports
at which capacity is ultimately created. has provided a clear direction for the significantly altered the domestic market.
industry. While the 2030-31 targets During FY2025-26, finished steel exports
The last decade has also demonstrated have not yet been achieved, the overall increased by nearly 36%, while imports
that external developments can alter the trajectory remains positive. declined by about 32%, enabling India
trajectory of the industry in ways that are to regain its position as a net exporter of
difficult to anticipate. The COVID-19 India's crude steelmaking capacity finished steel.
pandemic, disruptions in global supply has increased from about 109 MT in
chains, changes in international trade FY2014-15 to 220.3 MT in FY2025- The speed with which trade flows
patterns, geopolitical developments and 26, effectively doubling over the past responded demonstrates the influence
increasing emphasis on decarbonisation decade. During the same period, crude that calibrated trade measures can have
have all influenced the operating steel production reached 168.4 MT, on domestic industry, particularly during
environment for the steel sector. At representing a year-on-year growth of periods of global oversupply.
the same time, India has continued to 10.7%, while finished steel production
expand its infrastructure programme, increased to 160.9 MT. Domestic The second development has been
resulting in strong domestic demand for consumption also remained strong at the recovery in domestic steel prices.
steel. 163.7 MT, reflecting continued demand Until late 2025, steel producers were
from infrastructure, construction, operating in a relatively weak pricing
manufacturing and engineering sectors. environment because of lower global
Against this backdrop, an assessment
of the National Steel Policy is both Per-capita finished steel consumption prices and increased imports. By July
has risen from nearly 61 kg at the time
relevant and timely. While recent the policy was introduced to 115.5 kg, 2026, however, domestic hot-rolled
performance has been encouraging, the indicating that steel consumption is coil prices had recovered significantly.
more important question is whether the steadily becoming more aligned with Although part of this improvement
underlying drivers required to achieve India's stage of economic development. reflects stronger domestic demand, it
the 2030-31 targets are strengthening at would also be reasonable to recognise
the same pace. the contribution of safeguard measures
In my view, FY2025-26 stands out as in improving producer confidence and
one of the strongest years for the Indian restoring market balance.
In the following sections, I examine
the progress made in capacity creation,
production and consumption, before
discussing the challenges that continue to
influence the sector. Particular attention
is given to issues that, in my view,
deserve greater focus in future policy
discussions, including raw material
quality, investment requirements,
logistics, trade measures and long-term
competitiveness. Table 1: NSP 2017 Targets vs. Current Status (FY25-26)

26 STEEL & METALLURGY SEPTEMBER 2026