Page 32 - Steel Metallurgy eMagazine Volume September 2026

DEMAND FORECASTING

carbon-linked trade measures that scope for long-term growth in steel Discussions on the National Steel
may gradually influence international demand, particularly as infrastructure Policy often focus on steelmaking
competitiveness. For Indian producers, development, urbanisation and capacity, investment commitments and
improving energy efficiency, increasing manufacturing continue to expand. production targets. While these are
the use of renewable energy and investing undoubtedly important, my experience
in cleaner production technologies will In my assessment, demand is unlikely to in the mining sector has convinced me
become strategic business requirements be the principal constraint for achieving that equal attention needs to be given to
rather than only environmental the objectives of the National Steel Policy. the raw material ecosystem that supports
commitments. The greater challenge lies in ensuring the steel industry. Ultimately, sustainable
that investments, project execution and steel production depends not only on
Global steel markets continue to present supporting infrastructure expand at a the capacity of steel plants but also on
another source of uncertainty. Chinese pace consistent with the expected growth the availability of quality raw materials
steel production remains significantly in demand. Capacity targets can only be and the infrastructure required to deliver
higher than domestic demand, resulting achieved when mining, transportation, them efficiently.
in persistent export pressure across energy supply, environmental approvals
international markets. In recent years, and steelmaking capacity progress India's iron ore production has
Chinese exports have approached 120 together. For this reason, the discussion continued to grow steadily over the past
MT annually, influencing steel prices in on the National Steel Policy should few years. National production reached
several regions. Consequently, Indian gradually shift from whether demand approximately 310 MT in FY2025-26,
producers must continue to improve will support additional capacity to reflecting an increase of around 7% over
operational efficiency to remain whether the entire industrial ecosystem the previous year. NMDC also recorded
competitive irrespective of temporary can deliver that capacity within the its highest-ever annual production of
trade protection measures. required timeframe. The distinction is 53.15 MT, becoming the first mining
important because India's experience company in the country to cross the 50
Domestic demand, on the other hand, over the past decade demonstrates that MT milestone. The strong performance
continues to provide confidence. India's policy ambition and market demand has continued into FY2026-27, with
per-capita finished steel consumption are necessary conditions for growth, but production during the first quarter
has increased to 115.5 kg, representing they are not sufficient on their own. indicating that the company remains on
substantial progress compared with the course towards its medium-term target
level prevailing when the National Steel THE FOUNDATION of 60 MT, while continuing to work
Policy was introduced. Nevertheless, towards its long-term vision of achieving
this remains below the policy target OF STEEL CAPACITY: 100 MT annual production.
of 160 kg, below the global average of WHY RAW
approximately 215 kg, and significantly These achievements demonstrate
lower than consumption levels observed MATERIAL QUALITY that the mining sector has responded
in more industrialised economies MATTERS AS MUCH positively to the growing requirements of
such as China. These comparisons the steel industry. However, in my view,
suggest that India still has considerable AS QUANTITY production volume alone does not

Table 2: Iron Ore - Production and Trade Snapshot

30 STEEL & METALLURGY SEPTEMBER 2026